Afghanistan: Reasons to Stay and Reasons to Leave

So why are U.S. troops still in Afghanistan? Ten years after the initial invasion into Afghanistan, many Americans are wondering the same thing. Of course, the U.S. has recently captured and killed Osama Bin Laden, which was the primary goal, along with capturing other members of Al-Qaida who were responsible for the September 11th attacks. However, there are several factors that contribute to our prolonged occupation of the country besides the capture of Al-Qaida members.At this point in time, Afghanistan has not become more stable as a nation, and some argue that fighting now is worse than ever. If America were to withdraw now, recognizing the human rights abuses still taking place, it would reflect poorly on the American government. In addition, there is the fear that if American troops were to pull out now, a civil war could erupt, the Taliban could return to power, and Pakistan could supply the Taliban fighters with monetary aid or nuclear power (which could be used for weapons). Furthermore, many non-Pashtun Afghanis would surely try to prevent this Taliban return to power because of the injustice they experienced under Taliban rule, and that would most definitely result in further violence.

Ronald Neumann, who was Ambassador to Afghanistan from 2005 to 2007, believes that Afghanistan is not currently strong enough to stand on its own and that an American withdrawal would, and I quote “lead to a renewed Taliban and al-Qaida offensive and perhaps a civil war in Afghanistan.” This withdrawal would give many religious extremists and jihadists encouragement to continue fighting the West, and they would benefit from a perceived U.S. military defeat. Furthermore, with such divides between the different ethnic groups, there will be some struggle for power between those groups, which could draw support from foreign allies, mainly neighboring countries. Neumann suggests that none of these ethnic groups would be strong enough or powerful enough to win the struggle, but that their foreign allies (i.e. Pakistan, Iran, and India) would not want to lose, and would continue to fund the fight for years. It is also known that Pakistan currently supports and provides shelter for many Taliban members and if the Taliban were to come back into power in Afghanistan, it seems logical that Pakistan would therefore put its support behind the Taliban (which mainly consists of Pashtuns).

With other countries potentially having some sort of stake in this conflict, there is also the worry that fighting in Afghanistan would spill over into neighboring countries, which could destabilize the region. This is especially dangerous considering that Iran and Pakistan share direct borders with Afghanistan and both countries have access to nuclear power. If either Pakistan or Iran were to offer Afghanistan access to this nuclear power in support, the consequences could be devastating for everyone. Looking at the other nations bordering Afghanistan, it is important to note that there is also unrest between Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. This means that if fighting in Afghanistan were to spill over it would only spark more violence and make the situation worse. This threat of impending violence is made more worrisome by the fact that the Afghan National Army is not yet strong enough to support and defend its country from any threats, be they internal or external. Therefore in the event that a civil war does erupt in Afghanistan, the ANA would be powerless to stop it or contain it.

On the other hand, there are several reasons to remove our presence from Afghanistan. Many people feel that America should withdraw from Afghanistan because the war has cost a tremendous sum of money thus far, as well as killed thousands of civilians and soldiers. Currently the war is costing American citizens about $100-$125 billion dollars a year. Furthermore, since the start of the war, close to 1,500 soldiers have been killed and roughly 11,000 more have been severely injured. As for civilian deaths, it’s harder to find an exact number, but somewhere around 8,000 Afghan civilians have been killed between 2007 and 2010 alone (keep in mind this conflict began in 2001). And of course, Obama has planned to begin troop withdrawal from Afghanistan this July.

Additionally, corruption seems to be a major problem throughout the country, some of it stemming from American involvement. America established the current government of Afghanistan and has even hand-picked the president, Hamid Karzai who has been in power for ten years. However, corruption has played a large part in his administration, for example, as a result of several politicians or relations of government officials “borrowing” money from Kabul Bank, the bank is now facing bankruptcy and a major bailout. It has also been known for a while that government officials frequently accept and require bribes even for the most menial tasks.

As CBS correspondent Lara Logan told us, no matter what plans we come up with, real change needs to come from within the country at the desire of the Afghanis. The longer the U.S. troops stay in Afghanistan, the more the hostile sentiments toward the West increase. In the Middle East, the U.S. presence is seen as an oppressive force and only further hinders the people from moving forward in a progressive direction. Military aggression on the part of the U.S. only encourages radicals to strike back with violence and it pushes the Afghani youth towards radicalism and violence as well. In fact, the Taliban first became a prominent group because of the Soviet invasion and occupation in the 80’s; the group formed to expel the Soviets from Afghanistan. It is also important to note that Afghanistan is a country that has been invaded for centuries and they have always managed to expel their invaders, therefore it seems unlikely that we will be able to make big changes within the country. Keeping this in mind it is important to note that in the aftermath of so many violent conflicts, Afghanistan is extremely poor and lacks many basic resources to support its people. Therefore, Afghanistan needs aid more than it does a military occupation, especially in the areas of economic development and social institutions. As Dr. Joia Mukherjee told all of us in 20/20 when she visited, in regions where basic needs are not provided, violence breaks out much more easily because the people have nothing to lose and they also feel frustrated at the fact that they have nothing.

Finally, I believe it is also important to note that success in Afghanistan cannot really be defined by anyone. While there are certain goals that the U.S. hopes to accomplish, no one actually knows at what point the U.S. will decide they have succeeded and leave the country. If success cannot be defined then U.S. troops could potentially remain in Afghanistan for years to come, which would only make it harder for Afghanistan to stand on its own and run as an independent nation once U.S. withdrawal would actually occur.

Sources:

1. Neumann, Ronald and Sussman, Barry. “The Case for a Slow Pullout from Afghanistan”. <http://niemanwatchdog.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=background.view&backgroundid=00528> (4/25/2011).
2. Coffee, Jerry. “Reasons to Stay in Afghanistan”. <http://www.midweek.com/content/columns/coffeebreak_article/reasons_to_stay_in_afghanistan/> (6/30/2010).
3. Caruba, Alan. “Exiting Afghanistan”. <http://papundits.wordpress.com/2011/01/11/exiting-afghanistan/> (1/1/2011).
4. Associated Press. “At Least 1,463 US military deaths in Afghanistan since 2001”. <http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/at-least-1463-us-military-deaths-in-afghanistan-since-2001/2011/05/10/AFSX1chG_story.html> (5/10/2011).
5. N/A—Data compiled from the UN Assistance Mission to Afghanistan. “Civilian Deaths in Afghanistan”. <http://www.conflictmonitors.org/countries/afghanistan/facts-and-figures/casualties/civilians> (3/9/2011).
6. Lawrence, Quil. “Another Bailout Looms, but this Time it’s for Kabul”. <http://www.npr.org/2011/02/28/134137014/another-bailout-looms-but-this-time-its-for-kabul> (3/10/2011).
7. Sands, Chris. “Afghanistan Battles Corruption”. <http://english.aljazeera.net/archive/2006/04/2008410132259772815.html> (4/17/2006).