There is something that has yet to be addressed in any of our blog posts. I am going to be the first to give a brief overview of some of the scenarios the Afghanistan government can use.
One of the scenarios was that the southeastern part of the country should no longer be occupied by troops. Based on the article “Plan B in Afghanistan” by Blackwell, this region has little hope to continue to remain Taliban free. Additionally, it is the most expensive portion of the country to keep occupied with troops and maintain safety. Therefore it was the author’s idea to immediately drawback from this position and let it takes its course. Blackwell said that there would be a line the Taliban will not cross. He also proposed the idea of bombing the office buildings in that part of the country once it is Taliban controlled.
To me this idea made little to no sense, because one by giving the Taliban the southeastern part of the country what is stopping them from expanding even more. Any line created would not be followed. The belief of the Taliban about the US occupation of Afghanistan is that the country has the right to know they will not be attacked and that is it. This means that by giving them an inch the Taliban might try to take a mile. As for the second part of the idea if the Taliban did adhere to the line, why would they ever work in office buildings? No one seems to give the Taliban the credit they deserve for their intelligence. Even if 1 in 10 roadside bombs goes off, they never have to fight an actual battle to cause damage. The Taliban know how to be safe and no have to worry about bombs and the idea of bombing them when they work in office buildings is ridiculous. They are a lot more intelligent and would think of this, therefore causing them to work in a safe place.
Another scenario is that of having a central government with divisional states. The states would be divided into the regions of the ethnic groups. The only time in which Afghanistan was truly stable was during the tribal times. Since then any central government has never been able to reach the corners of the country and maintain a strong government. This is why by splitting up the country into the states of the ethnic groups it creates a similar feel to the tribal times. The states would have the opportunity to choose their own miniature governments and how they wish to be run. This means most likely the Pashtun’s in the south will like to be run by the Taliban, while others want democracy. Additionally, Kabul will remain a city for everyone. This will serve as the HQ for the government and meetings between the state leaders. The national army will be strong enough to defend the state if another encroaches on the territory and will also be based in Kabul. The central government will only be for the foreign policy of the country. This means there is a split between using a central government and a state run government. The only real use of the central government will be to protect the rights of the state as well as the foreign policies.
This is my personal favorite because it seems the most appealing to all the groups in Afghanistan. It has the potential to create a haven of peace, where each state gets to choose how it is ruled. With a ethnic center in Kabul, to help keep the peace throughout the country.
Many more ideas on the way
Nathan
Your plan for dividing the country into states based off of ethnic groups is indeed a good one in theory. However it does remind me of how the United States used to be run, wherein each state has more rights than the federal government, and thus tries to become its own country with its own currency, as such political divisions facilitate harsh cultural divisions as well. I am, of course, not assuming that Afghanistan is anything like the United States, no, that would be foolish. What I am suggesting is that, if one suggests the path of division, that the division might be better if it were complete and total division, wherein the states would become countries, and separated entirely from each other politically. Of course, that is easier said than done, and would probably involve more bloodshed than is currently present, somehow. Obviously, this comment isn't to propose a new solution, but is meant to 'comment' on a solution proposed. I would, in a separate paper, propose a new type of democracy, a "concillatory democracy". But, of course, this is a comment, and I dare not go that in-depth.
ReplyDeleteBut I do like your ideas.
I very much enjoy this idea that there could be a creation of several new countries. However I personally feel like this is not feasible. As a split country everything would be tiny and trade routes would be very much disrupted. The idea makes total sense, and I will in fact delve into further and would love to collaborate about it some more.
ReplyDeleteIt looks to me Nathan, as though the two plans that you outline here are similar in a lot of ways. The first (Blackwell's solution) gives territory over to the Taliban but continues to view them in an adversarial nature, while the second allows certain provinces to accept Taliban control as long as is is willing to take part in the larger Afghan federation. Am I right? Please link directly to these articles in your post so that a reader can fact check and look further into the matter.
ReplyDeleteIs there any evidence suggesting that the Taliban would be happy ruling local governments in the south and collaborating actively with a national government based in Kabul? Would this run contrary to their ideology?