Will the Revolutionary Wave Hit Afghanistan?

In a recent New York Times Blog post, Rajiv Srinivasan speculated on the impact that the current Middle East riots might have on Afghanistan. From what I’ve been able to find out, Rajiv Srinivasan is (or was) a second lieutenant in the U.S. Army who was born in India but raised in America. His military service has taken him to many places in the Middle East, which is why he has such an interest in the area. In his blog he states that while the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia are worthy of praise he feels that Afghanistan has been overlooked.

Based on his experiences, Srinivasan fears that in Afghanistan’s isolated villages, where tribal traditions are prominent in society, the tribal elders will react negatively to the sprouting rebellions throughout the Middle East. Both of these uprisings have been driven primarily by the countries’ youth and Srinivasan writes that Afghani village elders see those resistance movements as signs of disrespect against the countries’ elders.

However it is not just a conservative mentality that may lead Afghanis to feel unsure about the recent riots. While the Karzai administration is trying to implement a western democratic government in Afghanistan, the riots in other parts of the Middle East threaten to topple this system as they have toppled the regimes in Egypt and Tunisia.

In the rural villages of Afghanistan, the people, or at least the older generations, are typically more conservative with the way in which they approach religion. I believe this conservative thinking, however, ties back to the tribal traditions of the Afghani ethnic groups. For those who may not know, the Pashtun people make up the majority of Afghanistan’s population, not Arabs. While religion, specifically Islam, is a uniting factor between Afghanistan and the Arab world, many tribal traditions and values still maintain deep importance in the culture of Afghanistan, at least in the more isolated areas. I’m sure that in the cities, like Kabul, the people do not maintain such a conservative mentality and are probably more susceptible to be enticed by the idea of revolution. However, in my opinion it seems that the situation in Afghanistan is not similar enough to the situations in Tunisia, Egypt, and now Libya for a rebellion to take root and implement drastic changes, especially not while U.S. troops are stationed there.

Overall, it seems to me that while revolution may be spreading across the Middle East, it might not have as strong of an effect in Afghanistan due to a few different factors. Certainly the factors mentioned above, such as culture and U.S. occupation make rebellion seem less likely, but frequent Taliban insurgencies only make a liberal revolution seem more improbable. While I know there are many people in Afghanistan who want change, it seems that their voices are often overlooked or suppressed. So even though there are Afghanis who would champion change and rebellion, I think that there are too many forces present that are trying to prevent that from happening.