Tuesday, February 8, 2011

I can just barely see the light at the end of the tunnel!

A common misconception in the Afghanistan conflict involves the distinct objectives of the Taliban and the Al Qaeda. To clear a few things up, the Taliban is an Islamist militia group that rules Afghanistan from 1996 onwards. The Taliban is constituted predominantly of Pasthun tribe members and the fundamentalist group receives aid form Pakistan primarily. Al Qaeda, on the other hand, is not organically Afghan. Al Qaeda is an internationally recognized terrorist group operating in a wave of radical Sunni Islam calling for a global Jihad. Moreover, Al Qaeda grew from ideological roots in the Middle East (most notably in Egypt). In contrast, the Taliban grew in Afghanistan and was largely isolated from international events (in contrast to Al Qaeda's global Jihad).
The Taliban leadership has stated that it would break its ties with Al Qaeda to reach a negotiated settlement to end the Afghan War and to ensure that Afghanistan does not become a base for international terrorism. In fact, it should be noted that many Taliban leaders are not opposed to the West or the US regardless of circumstances, but rather are opposed to specific American policies or objectives in Afghanistan. Furthermore, the Taliban does not desire a return to the to Taliban leadership in Afghanistan (a la 1996) but still represents the existing power of the group. If the Taliban is given the reigns of Afghan leadership, the question becomes if the older- generation Taliban members could keep Afghanistan terror- free. There would be support to break with senior Al Qaeda leadership if the Taliban maintains control of Afghanistan, but how this settlement is addressed will determine how successful or potent the break will be. In fact, Taliban engagement on a political level would evince beneficial opportunities that would not exist in keeping the Taliban quelled in government.
Another misconception about the Afghan situation is that the Taliban will not talk to negotiate a peaceful resolution. There is evidence that the Taliban will talk however (ex. memoirs of former Taliban ambassador suggest so) though the question then becomes why the Taliban would enter into talks. As fighting intensifies, the British generals think that the added military pressure will lead to the Taliban entering negotiation, though researchers at NYU feel that the intense combat is doing just the opposite. In fact, researchers argue that the military operations are fragmenting the Taliban community, creating younger, more radicalized fighters less willing to negotiate a peace deal as all these militants have seen is American and British oppression. Moreover, the younger generation is more susceptible to to being swayed by the Al Qaeda movement of global Jihad. In intensifying the fighting, the West is essentially destroying the organizations with whom the West wants to negotiate.
Furthermore, a possible solution to the conflict that has not gained much traction is for the Taliban to accept shared power of Afghanistan (shared with the existing political factions) while accepting American military presence in the country for a period of time. This solution seems unlikely to be supported by the local political factions in Afghanistan, but extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures.
As for the Al Qaeda, Afghanistan must attempt to remove the group skilfully, as if performing a possibly life- threatening surgery if any complications occur. America does not want the Al Qaeda to leave Afghanistan and regroup in Yemen or Egypt, therefore stretching its tentacles into the groundswell in the Middle East (especially Egpyt) right now. Moreover the Taliban cannot hand over Al Qaeda leaders to America either, as they would essentially be performing hari kari. How would a radical Islamist group kill another group of similar ideology and expect to be left untouched by Al Qaeda's allies? If the Taliban does stab Al Qaeda in the back, America could end up involved in a war against many warring terrorist factions. Just to write such a sentence looks gruesome on paper.
That's all I have for now; I hope that I've depicted a few Afghan predicaments with more clarity than they were portrayed before.

- Nikhil

1 comment:

  1. Well done, Nikhil. You put a lot of good information in this. Please go back and edit this post to include a link to the article by NYU researchers, as well as their names. It would also strengthen your post if you were to specifically cite an opposing point of view in order to refute it.

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